The Grand National is the most valuable jump race in Europe and is watched all across the world. For the first time, there will only be 34 runners in the race, reduced from the usual 40 runners, but it’s still one of the toughest races to pick the winner in. In this article, we look at the trends for the past twenty winners of the famous Aintree race, which can help whittle down the runners and help you pick your 2024 Grand National tips.
Winner Trends In The Last 20 Renewals
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- 20/20 winners had run at least three times already that season.
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- 20/20 winners had an official rating of between 137-160.
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- 18/20 winners carried 11-05 or less
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- 18/20 winners were aged 8-11.
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- 16/20 winners were rated 137-150.
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- 16/20 winners won at double-figure odds.
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- 16/20 winners were Irish-bred.
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- 15/20 winners had at least two wins in races 3 miles or further.
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- 15/20 winners were either in midfield or up with the leaders.
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- 14/20 winners were making their Grand National debut.
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- 13/20 winners won at odds between 10/1 – 33/1.
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- 12/20 had won at least once already that season.
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- 11/20 winners were trained in the UK, with the other 9 winners trained in Ireland.
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- 5/20 winners were either favourite or joint-favourite.
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- The last 9 winners were rated 143-159.
Looking at the stats, there are four who stand out and hit plenty of the trends:
Vanillier
Having finished runner-up in the race last year behind Corach Rambler, Gavin Cromwell’s nine-year-old will be hoping to go one better this year. Having been held up in rear throughout, he finished strongly to fill the runner-up spot 12 months ago, but with more aggressive tactics this year he could easily go one better. This has clearly been the target for him this season and he fits plenty of the trends, although not all of them – he is yet to win this season, but did finish runner-up in his most recent run. I have him down to have a big chance of winning this year.
Panda Boy
Martin Brassil’s grey is another who is yet to win this season, but he does fit plenty of other trends for winning this race, and his runner-up effort behind Meetingofthewaters makes for good reading in here. He has since finished a close fourth in a Listed race at Leopardstown in February in further proof of his good form in big handicaps, and if he does get in the race he’ll be receiving weight from the majority of his rivals. He’s more than capable of making his presence felt off this mark.
Minella Indo
The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner is another who ticks plenty of boxes when looking at recent trends for winning this race, and comes into the race on the back of an excellent effort off top weight in a cross country race at Cheltenham in December. He should love the Aintree course and is usually at his best during the spring, so he should be thereabouts if he can handle the step up to this marathon trip.
Galvin
Gordon Elliott’s 10YO will be hoping for an improved effort in the race this year, having unseated jockey Davy Russell over the first fence last year. His form hasn’t been great since then, although he did finish 3½ lengths behind Minella Indo in the cross country chase at Cheltenham back in December, and is 1lbs better off with that rival in here. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue for him, and he’s a class act so it would be no surprise to see him feature at the business end of the race this year.
Verdict
All four runners who the trends suggest will win the 2024 Grand National are all in with a good chance it would seem, however if you were to nail me down to one selection it would have to be VANILLIER. After finishing runner-up in the race last year, he has a nice pull in the weights with Corach Rambler, and his jumping style is perfect for the Grand National fences. He ticks plenty of trends for the race, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go off as favourite for the race before the race starts.
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